Modeling Habitat Connectivity for the Monarch Butterfly among Protected Areas and its Significance in Conservation

The goal for this project was to analyze habitat connectivity for overwintering sites of monarch butterflies within Mexico (specifically Michoacán where the most important butterfly reserve is situated). My spatial analysis will identify locations of potential risk due to poor habitat connectivity.

 

 In recent years, the number of acres of forests covered by wintering butterflies have dramatically decreased due to threats to monarch population and habitat. In addition, pesticides that are used to control insects and weeds have harmful unintended consequences for monarchs, a changing climate may be making some habitat less suitable and forcing changes in migratory patterns, and monarchs face many risks from natural enemies, such as predators, parasitoids, and diseases.Using multiple parameters I created different cost surfaces that were used to model habitat connectivity between protected areas in overwintering colony sites. 

 

The factors contributing to this decline are many. The three lowest overwintering populations on record have been recorded in the last 10 years. This includes the all-time low of 0.67 hectares recorded last winter (WWF Canada). Three times (2002, 2004, 2010) in the last decade massive Pacific weather systems have moved into central Mexico in January and February. Each of these events resulted in heavy rain, often accompanied by hail, high winds, or freezing temperatures that devastated the monarch overwintering populations. 

 

Conserving and connecting suitable habitat for monarchs will provide benefits not only to them, but to other plants and animals that are in critcial habitat conditions. This includes insect and avian pollinators.